Monday, September 29, 2008

Fall Fling Overall Standings - Cat 5 - Citizens

Some discussion over at BF had me going back to the results to complile my own version of the overall scoring for the Cat 5/Citizens field for Fall Fling. I have run three scenarios with the following assumptions:

1 - Includes all points scored to date with no regard to whether both races were raced or not.

2 - Includes everyone who raced both races (Green) or has personally stated to me that they will race at least 3 races to qualify for the overall. This also includes Yellow - individuals who did not race the road race but did do the crit. This one eliminates those in red - individuals that did not race the crit or told me they wouldn't be doing at least 3 races. My rationale is that you must race at least 3 events and if you skipped this crit the odds of you doing both the TT and the last crit are pretty low. The yellows I left thinking maybe they just don't like Road Races.

3 - Green includes everyone that has done both races or stated intent to do at least 3 overall stages. The odds of everyone in this list getting the 3 events in for the series is very high to almost definite. All of these riders could ignore the TT and still get 3 in by doing the final crit (except Riccio who told me he was definitely doign the TT and crit).

So...still too early to play numbers games...can't realy do that until after the TT. The TT will pretty much set the final standings. At that point we will know who is in and who is out of the overall as well as what is even feasible during the final crit.

Why is this important to me? Who knows. I find it immensely interesting. The tactics involved in trying to position overall are far more interesting than just going out and hammering yourself, doing poorly then sulking for the rest of the day.

I have TT experience (well 3 TT's this season). I am by far not a very good TT'r, but I look at it this way....I have gotten faster in every TT I have done. My general form is about at a peak. I have a more dialed in TT position than I have ever had before (still lacks). I will be pre-riding the TT course on Thursday night after work IN my TT setup....a first for me. It's the SHORTEST TT I have ever done. I know better how to embrace the pain that is a TT where a lot of these guys have never done it before..... other words I hope to make up in experience what I lack in talent. My hope for overall was top 10. So far it looks to be something within reach.

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